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Periodical
Publisher: Praha : Český statistický úřad
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,
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We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure each firm’s liquidity shortfall during and after COVID-19. Our framework allows for a rich combination of sectoral and aggregate supply, productivity, and demand shocks. We estimate a large increase in the failure rate of SMEs under COVID-19 of nearly 9 percentage points, ab-sent government support. Accommodation & Food Services, Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Education, and Other Services are among the most affected sectors. The jobs at risk due to COVID-19 related SME business failures represent 3.1 percent of private sector employment. Despite the large impact on business failures and employment, we estimate only moderate effects on the financial sector: the share of Non Performing Loans on bank balance sheets would increase by up to 11 percentage points, representing 0.3 percent of banks’ assets and resulting in a 0.75 percentage point decline in the common equity Tier-1 capital ratio. We evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various policy interventions. The fiscal cost of an intervention that narrowly targets at risk firms can be modest (0.54% of GDP). However, at a similar level of effectiveness, non-targeted subsidies can be substantially more expensive (1.82% of GDP). Our results have important implications for the severity of the COVID-19 recession, the design of policies, and the speed of the recovery.
Book
Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,
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Sustaining the impressive convergence gains allowed by the Czech automotive sector has become challenging due to its comparatively lower value added, lower investments in research and development, and lower skills in the labor market. Using a structural model of global value chains, the paper examines policies to smooth the transition to the production of electric vehicles in Czechia. The analysis explores the impacts of increasing labor productivity, boosting production capabilities, and moving up the global value chain. These policies were found to have a relatively lower impact when they shift specialization towards lower value-added stages of production.
Book
Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,
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The Czech Republic entered the pandemic on a strong economic footing. Amid another surge in virus infections, the outlook is for a continued rebound in activity. However, the risks are tilted to the downside. Inflation remained marginally above the upper tolerance band in 2020 and increased substantially in late 2021. Pressures in the labor market remain. Macrofinancial vulnerabilities persist as house price growth has reached record highs amid significant risk-taking by lenders.
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Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,
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This 2022 Article IV Consultation highlights that Russia’s war in Ukraine has stifled the Czech Republic’s nascent recovery from the pandemic. Uncertainty is high due to the war with risks to economic activity tilted to the downside and risks to inflation tilted to the upside. The economy remains vulnerable to the availability of and further increases in energy and commodity prices. Czechia's nascent recovery from the pandemic has been hindered by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Gas shortages are unlikely this winter but further increases in energy prices are a key risk. Inflation, which is well above target, and the rise in the cost of living are causing significant social pressure. Amid a volatile economic environment and high risks to the outlook, policy needs to balance reducing inflation with supporting the most vulnerable. Once uncertainty dissipates, continuing the structural policy agenda will be critical. Labor market policies should continue to improve the integration of women, migrants, and refugees, and facilitate the green and digital economic transformation. The indexation of the retirement age to life expectancy would improve pension sustainability and increase labor supply. While energy security is an immediate priority, policies for the green transformation should continue.
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